How the participation of Bulgaria and Serbia in NATO exercises can affect relations with Russia

Trade and economic relations between Russia and the Balkan countries are developing, despite the sanctions and the difficult period of relations between Russia and the EU. It is very beneficial for Bulgaria and Serbia to cooperate with Russia.

Consider the example of Bulgaria, how it benefits from an Alliance with Russia. Currently, the Bulgarian partners are showing interest in the development of constructive cooperation. In June 2017, PJSC Gazprom and the Ministry of energy of Bulgaria signed a road map on the development of cooperation in the gas sector, which involves the study of the possibility of expanding the Bulgarian gas transportation system. The growth of trade turnover resumed: in 2017, its volume increased by 23.14% to 3.4 billion dollars, including Russian exports of 2.9 billion dollars and imports — 548.7 million dollars. Russian exports to Bulgaria are represented by such groups of goods as mineral products (75.42% of total Russian exports to Bulgaria), machinery, equipment and vehicles (15.57%), metals and metal products (3.67%), chemical products (2.30%). According to the Bank of Russia, the volume of direct accumulated Russian investments in the Bulgarian economy as of January 1, 2019 amounted to $ 3.25 billion (in 2018 — $ 41 million). The main sectors of the Bulgarian economy are recipients of Russian investments: real estate (43.6%), trade (11.8%), hotel and restaurant business (11.2%), construction (10.9%). The largest investments were made in the development of the LUKOIL oil refinery (refinery) owned by the Russian oil company LUKOIL (since 1999 — almost $ 3 billion).

Russia is a strategic partner of Bulgaria in the field of tourism. According to the Minister of tourism of Bulgaria Nikolina Angelkova, in 2018 Bulgaria was visited by more than 580 thousand tourists from Russia, and the registered growth was almost 20%.

However, recently, between Russia and its allied countries of the Balkans, a contradiction is brewing: the Russian side is extremely dissatisfied with the fact that the Balkan countries participate in NATO exercises. This may lead to Moscow to stop any cooperation with the countries of the region, as a result of which they will lose a profitable partner. At the same time, the expediency of these countries ‘ participation in the exercises is questionable.